A look at young and minority vote

6 11 2008

Here are the CNN exit poll results in the Age and Race category.

2008 exit poll -- vote by age an race (CNN)

2008 exit poll -- vote by age an race (CNN)

This shows some interesting things.

  • The young white vote for Obama is not that huge (54% to 44%). There is hope for these people. They have not tasted the Carter era, so they did not realize what they were voting for.
  • The “Vote by Age” table at CNN provides more detailed split of the young vote (18-24, and 25-29). Both these groups show 66% vote for Obama. Seemingly there was not much difference in the voting behavior of those two smaller age goups.
  • The black vote was the same for Obama irrespective of age – nothing interesting or unexpected here.
  • What is interesting is the Latino vote. It shows clearly that the younger the Latino voters were, the more “Hope” they put in Obama.
  • Just the Latino 18-29 voting group alone gave Obama an advantage of more than 2mln votes over McCain by voting 76% for Obama against 19% for McCain.
  • Compared to 2004 election 3% fewer white voters voted (74% in 2008 vs. 77% in 2004). The black vote grew by 2% and the Latino by 1%.

UPDATE: here is a link to Michelle Malkin’s post from July’08: How much to buy off the Latino vote?

So what is my take on these numbers.

  • I think Obama will definitely get an amnesty passed for illegal immigrants. With the estimated number of the illegal immigrants over 10mln (some estimates up to 20mln), I guess that would give him at least 3mln votes. When the amnesty happens will depend on what timing would be most useful for the reelections. If he does it too early, it may spoil the effect in the number of votes it would give him in 2012 — people would forget to be “thankful” if some other issues come up before amnesty and 2012 elections.  If he does it too late, that would anger some Latino voters who hoped for early amnesty.
    One problem with this theory is that most of the illegal immigrants are in CA and that state is already in the hands of Democrats. The second state, Texas probably has too few illegal immigrants to swing it to Democrat as McCain won TX over Obama by almost 1mln votes.
  • Everything in Obama’s (and his wife’s career) so far shows that he wants the state to indoctrinate kids in public schools and other programs. For example, Obama’s admitted connections with Ayers are precisely in the field of education and youth programs. Ayers hates any form of education other than public schools. We will see if Obama shares the same views.
    Obama and his friends will fight hard for the minds of the young generation of future voters.

Let me finish with a video that shows an example of Liberal indoctrination/bullying of young school kids. (It is from a documentary about US elections made by Finnish TV.)




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